DDM Analysis: ELPI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$326.22 - $503.18	$408.46
Multi-Stage	$729.40 - $803.04	$765.49
Blended Fair Value	$586.98
Current Price	$350.00
Upside	67.71%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	6.30	4.16	0.00	103.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	51.43%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.61%	1.55%	0.00%	38.15%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	262,373.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	106,312.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	156,061.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	52,474.60	32,796.63	19,677.98
Cash Retained (M)	156,061.00	156,061.00	156,061.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-52,474.60	-32,796.63	-19,677.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	103,586.40	123,264.38	136,383.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,412.00	7,412.00	7,412.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	13.98	16.63	18.40
LTM Dividend per Share	14.34	14.34	14.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	13.98	16.63	18.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	28.32	30.97	32.74
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$326.22	$408.46	$503.18
Upside / Downside	-6.79%	16.70%	43.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	262,373.00	259,749.27	257,151.78	254,580.26	252,034.46	249,514.11	256,999.54
Payout Ratio	40.52%	50.42%	60.31%	70.21%	80.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	106,312.00	130,953.97	155,092.47	178,735.11	201,889.39	224,562.70	237,724.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	121,711.15	122,953.10	124,195.05
Year 2 PV (M)	133,972.01	136,720.08	139,496.05
Year 3 PV (M)	143,497.68	147,935.45	152,463.77
Year 4 PV (M)	150,646.89	156,890.50	163,326.20
Year 5 PV (M)	155,738.50	163,848.16	172,292.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,700,721.89	4,945,499.39	5,200,369.22
Equity Value (M)	5,406,288.12	5,673,846.68	5,952,142.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,412.00	7,412.00	7,412.00
Fair Value	$729.40	$765.49	$803.04
Upside / Downside	108.40%	118.71%	129.44%

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PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk (ELPI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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