Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche S.p.A. (DANR.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$582.10 - $686.22$642.90
Multi-Stage$355.18 - $390.98$372.74
Blended Fair Value$507.82
Current Price$25.60
Upside1,883.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.300.270.170.140.150.100.100.100.10
YoY Growth---100.00%10.50%60.65%19.98%-6.61%45.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%-64.49%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.38%1.36%1.37%0.85%1.58%1.05%0.67%0.66%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)258.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.5335.3321.20
Cash Retained (M)258.95258.95258.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.53-35.33-21.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.42223.62237.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.4879.4879.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.552.812.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.552.812.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$582.10$642.90$686.22
Upside / Downside2,173.84%2,411.33%2,580.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.65291.98301.62311.58321.87332.49342.47
Payout Ratio8.39%24.71%41.03%57.35%73.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7072.14123.76178.70237.14299.24316.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)70.0870.7771.45
Year 2 PV (M)116.79119.09121.41
Year 3 PV (M)163.83168.69173.63
Year 4 PV (M)211.21219.59228.21
Year 5 PV (M)258.91271.81285.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,408.4128,774.4430,194.40
Equity Value (M)28,229.2329,624.3831,074.33
Shares Outstanding (M)79.4879.4879.48
Fair Value$355.18$372.74$390.98
Upside / Downside1,287.43%1,356.00%1,427.27%

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