DDM Analysis: CJA.F

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$275.35 - $536.50	$502.78
Multi-Stage	$82.45 - $90.31	$86.30
Blended Fair Value	$294.54
Current Price	$39.72
Upside	641.54%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.56%	19.25%	0.53	0.48	0.40	0.35	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.17	0.15	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	11.55%	19.94%	14.42%	23.03%	24.39%	18.97%	11.64%	11.77%	39.58%	19.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.33%	1.26%	1.04%	0.97%	0.71%	0.65%	0.62%	0.74%	0.64%	0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,572.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	517.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,054.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	514.42	321.51	192.91
Cash Retained (M)	2,054.40	2,054.40	2,054.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-514.42	-321.51	-192.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,539.98	1,732.89	1,861.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	953.45	953.45	953.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.62	1.82	1.95
LTM Dividend per Share	0.54	0.54	0.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.62	1.82	1.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.16	2.36	2.50
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$275.35	$502.78	$536.50
Upside / Downside	593.22%	1,165.81%	1,250.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,572.10	2,739.29	2,917.34	3,106.97	3,308.92	3,524.00	3,629.72
Payout Ratio	20.13%	34.10%	48.08%	62.05%	76.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	517.70	934.15	1,402.56	1,927.90	2,515.62	3,171.60	3,357.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	870.32	878.57	886.82
Year 2 PV (M)	1,217.42	1,240.61	1,264.01
Year 3 PV (M)	1,559.07	1,603.82	1,649.43
Year 4 PV (M)	1,895.33	1,968.22	2,043.19
Year 5 PV (M)	2,226.27	2,333.79	2,445.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)	70,839.21	74,260.77	77,813.28
Equity Value (M)	78,607.61	82,285.78	86,102.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	953.45	953.45	953.45
Fair Value	$82.45	$86.30	$90.31
Upside / Downside	107.57%	117.28%	127.36%

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Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (CJA.F)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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