DDM Analysis: BUR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.47 - $76.34	$25.46
Multi-Stage	$9.28 - $10.15	$9.71
Blended Fair Value	$17.59
Current Price	$14.26
Upside	23.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.78%	6.72%	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.18	0.00	0.13	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.63%	-0.60%	-32.61%	0.00%	-100.00%	15.64%	23.85%	16.33%	9.88%	8.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.96%	0.79%	1.53%	1.75%	0.00%	1.36%	0.54%	0.57%	1.19%	2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	85.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)	45.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.20	10.75	6.45
Cash Retained (M)	45.05	45.05	45.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.20	-10.75	-6.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.86	34.31	38.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	222.40	222.40	222.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.36
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	4.72%	5.72%	6.72%
Fair Value	$13.47	$25.46	$76.34
Upside / Downside	-5.54%	78.56%	435.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	85.99	90.91	96.11	101.61	107.42	113.57	116.98
Payout Ratio	47.60%	56.08%	64.56%	73.04%	81.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.93	50.98	62.05	74.22	87.57	102.21	108.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	4.72%	5.72%	6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	47.14	47.59	48.04
Year 2 PV (M)	53.05	54.07	55.10
Year 3 PV (M)	58.67	60.37	62.10
Year 4 PV (M)	64.01	66.49	69.04
Year 5 PV (M)	69.08	72.45	75.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,771.93	1,858.16	1,947.72
Equity Value (M)	2,063.88	2,159.12	2,257.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	222.40	222.40	222.40
Fair Value	$9.28	$9.71	$10.15
Upside / Downside	-34.92%	-31.92%	-28.80%

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Burford Capital Limited (BUR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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