DDM Analysis: AZA.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$915.08 - $3,302.17	$2,911.53
Multi-Stage	$430.42 - $470.26	$449.98
Blended Fair Value	$1,680.75
Current Price	$349.10
Upside	381.45%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	41.56%	22.85%	11.46	7.45	9.07	3.75	2.24	2.02	2.00	1.98	1.95	1.28
YoY Growth	-	-	53.87%	-17.89%	142.13%	66.95%	11.32%	0.95%	0.64%	1.62%	52.48%	-12.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.75%	3.25%	3.73%	1.55%	0.83%	2.43%	2.48%	2.25%	2.90%	1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,620.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,848.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	772.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	524.00	327.50	196.50
Cash Retained (M)	772.00	772.00	772.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-524.00	-327.50	-196.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	248.00	444.50	575.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	157.79	157.79	157.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.57	2.82	3.65
LTM Dividend per Share	11.71	11.71	11.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.57	2.82	3.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	13.28	14.53	15.36
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$915.08	$2,911.53	$3,302.17
Upside / Downside	162.13%	734.01%	845.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,620.00	2,790.30	2,971.67	3,164.83	3,370.54	3,589.63	3,697.32
Payout Ratio	70.53%	74.43%	78.32%	82.21%	86.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,848.00	2,076.75	2,327.43	2,601.92	2,902.27	3,230.66	3,420.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,922.10	1,940.32	1,958.54
Year 2 PV (M)	1,993.70	2,031.67	2,070.01
Year 3 PV (M)	2,062.86	2,122.07	2,182.41
Year 4 PV (M)	2,129.63	2,211.53	2,295.77
Year 5 PV (M)	2,194.06	2,300.04	2,410.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	57,613.62	60,396.37	63,285.64
Equity Value (M)	67,915.96	71,002.00	74,202.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	157.79	157.79	157.79
Fair Value	$430.42	$449.98	$470.26
Upside / Downside	23.29%	28.90%	34.71%

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Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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