Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $137.70 - $306.50 | $198.84 |
| Multi-Stage | $107.95 - $118.05 | $112.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $155.87 | |
| Current Price | $196.01 | |
| Upside | -20.48% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.29% | 44.22% | 1.16 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.89% | 6.11% | 6.76% | 5.61% | 10.11% | 313.95% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -7.69% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.82% | 0.87% | 1.42% | 1.05% | 0.99% | 1.02% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.07% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 305.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 54.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 251.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 61.08 | 38.18 | 22.91 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 251.30 | 251.30 | 251.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -61.08 | -38.18 | -22.91 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 190.22 | 213.13 | 228.40 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 43.78 | 43.78 | 43.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.35 | 4.87 | 5.22 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.35 | 4.87 | 5.22 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.58 | 6.10 | 6.45 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.85% | 5.85% | 6.85% |
| Fair Value | $137.70 | $198.84 | $306.50 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.75% | 1.44% | 56.37% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 305.40 | 323.26 | 342.17 | 362.18 | 383.36 | 405.78 | 417.95 |
| Payout Ratio | 17.71% | 32.17% | 46.63% | 61.09% | 75.54% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 54.10 | 104.00 | 159.55 | 221.24 | 289.60 | 365.20 | 386.61 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.85% | 5.85% | 6.85% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 94.42 | 95.33 | 96.23 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 131.53 | 134.05 | 136.59 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 165.59 | 170.38 | 175.25 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 196.81 | 204.42 | 212.26 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 225.34 | 236.29 | 247.67 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,911.87 | 4,102.01 | 4,299.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,725.56 | 4,942.48 | 5,167.47 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 43.78 | 43.78 | 43.78 |
| Fair Value | $107.95 | $112.91 | $118.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -44.93% | -42.40% | -39.78% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.45% | $2.47 | 28.36% |
| SF | Stifel Financial Corp. | 1.45% | $1.86 | 30.82% |
| 0HFN.L | Analog Devices, Inc. | 1.44% | $3.90 | 84.88% |
| HAYN | Haynes International, Inc. | 1.44% | $0.88 | 30.16% |
| 0I58.L | Cummins Inc. | 1.43% | $7.42 | 38.53% |
| 0HRJ.L | CSX Corporation | 1.42% | $0.51 | 33.32% |
| OLED | Universal Display Corporation | 1.42% | $1.73 | 37.24% |
| BBW | Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.86 | 19.50% |
| LBC | Luther Burbank Corporation | 1.41% | $0.13 | 17.07% |
| SNDR | Schneider National, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.38 | 58.72% |
| 0R13.L | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 1.40% | $1.16 | 36.55% |
| COHN | Cohen & Company Inc. | 1.40% | $0.35 | 48.05% |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 1.40% | $2.48 | 39.81% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | 1.40% | $1.54 | 44.05% |
| CXT | Crane NXT, Co. | 1.39% | $0.66 | 24.82% |
| ESBA | Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 1.39% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| MMS | Maximus, Inc. | 1.39% | $1.21 | 21.54% |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 1.39% | $1.70 | 34.98% |
| ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | 1.38% | $0.24 | 34.61% |
| HYAC | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III | 1.38% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corporation | 1.38% | $0.36 | 18.11% |
| MCY | Mercury General Corporation | 1.38% | $1.27 | 16.00% |
| ACU | Acme United Corporation | 1.37% | $0.55 | 28.31% |
| DE | Deere & Company | 1.36% | $6.34 | 34.22% |
| HYAC-UN | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 | 1.36% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 1.36% | $2.56 | 52.52% |
| 0HIN.L | Assurant, Inc. | 1.35% | $3.22 | 19.47% |
| AL | Air Lease Corporation | 1.35% | $0.86 | 9.51% |
| BGCP | BGC Partners, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.06 | 11.88% |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | 1.34% | $3.55 | 33.23% |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.59 | 50.16% |
| 0K9L.L | Nucor Corporation | 1.33% | $2.22 | 31.04% |
| BY | Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 1.33% | $0.39 | 13.97% |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.33% | $1.09 | 35.19% |
| OPOF | Old Point Financial Corporation | 1.33% | $0.56 | 32.91% |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 1.33% | $2.50 | 27.85% |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 1.32% | $0.71 | 21.15% |
| VLEOX | Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class | 1.32% | $0.79 | 56.29% |
| 0IW7.L | Global Payments Inc. | 1.31% | $1.01 | 13.82% |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 1.31% | $1.92 | 27.59% |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66 | 1.31% | $0.27 | 6.72% |
| NDSN | Nordson Corporation | 1.31% | $3.15 | 36.67% |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 1.31% | $5.23 | 68.01% |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | 1.31% | $1.52 | 18.87% |
| 0L3I.L | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 1.30% | $1.29 | 28.42% |
| 0R2X.L | Corning Incorporated | 1.30% | $1.15 | 72.69% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 1.30% | $1.13 | 24.20% |
| GGG | Graco Inc. | 1.30% | $1.07 | 36.31% |
| HES | Hess Corporation | 1.30% | $1.94 | 26.90% |