DDM Analysis: AQSG.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.15 - $0.22	$0.19
Multi-Stage	$0.23 - $0.26	$0.24
Blended Fair Value	$0.22
Current Price	$0.24
Upside	-8.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.39%	0.00%	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	8.33%	300.00%	-82.40%	15.11%	16.19%	14.92%	220.12%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.44%	2.39%	0.56%	2.91%	2.41%	1.50%	1.40%	0.36%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	0.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.61

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.18	0.11	0.07
Cash Retained (M)	0.61	0.61	0.61
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.18	-0.11	-0.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.42	0.49	0.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	41.05	41.05	41.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.02
WACC / Discount Rate	9.82%	9.82%	9.82%
Growth Rate	-1.61%	-0.61%	0.39%
Fair Value	$0.15	$0.19	$0.22
Upside / Downside	-34.45%	-20.64%	-6.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	0.92	0.91	0.91	0.90	0.90	0.89	0.92
Payout Ratio	33.77%	45.02%	56.26%	67.51%	78.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.31	0.41	0.51	0.61	0.71	0.80	0.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.82%	9.82%	9.82%
Growth Rate	-1.61%	-0.61%	0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	0.37	0.37	0.38
Year 2 PV (M)	0.41	0.42	0.43
Year 3 PV (M)	0.45	0.46	0.47
Year 4 PV (M)	0.47	0.49	0.50
Year 5 PV (M)	0.48	0.50	0.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7.40	7.79	8.19
Equity Value (M)	9.58	10.03	10.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	41.05	41.05	41.05
Fair Value	$0.23	$0.24	$0.26
Upside / Downside	-0.74%	3.96%	8.85%

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Aquila Services Group plc (AQSG.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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