Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,097.38 - $20,883.73$15,072.00
Multi-Stage$18,498.96 - $20,325.33$19,394.63
Blended Fair Value$17,233.32
Current Price$8,175.00
Upside110.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.14%-6.55%248.97400.96443.95254.9790.99223.98433.96517.9598.99386.14
YoY Growth---37.91%-9.68%74.12%180.22%-59.38%-48.39%-16.22%423.23%-74.36%-21.20%
Dividend Yield--4.45%5.79%5.48%2.03%0.91%4.15%3.85%3.84%0.66%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,416,511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)515,764.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)900,747.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)283,302.20177,063.88106,238.33
Cash Retained (M)900,747.00900,747.00900,747.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-283,302.20-177,063.88-106,238.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)617,444.80723,683.13794,508.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.691,924.691,924.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share320.80376.00412.80
LTM Dividend per Share267.97267.97267.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share320.80376.00412.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend588.78643.97680.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.95%1.95%2.95%
Fair Value$11,097.38$15,072.00$20,883.73
Upside / Downside35.75%84.37%155.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,416,511.001,444,164.131,472,357.111,501,100.471,530,404.961,560,281.531,607,089.98
Payout Ratio36.41%47.13%57.85%68.56%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)515,764.00680,615.74851,707.391,029,219.761,213,338.331,404,253.381,486,558.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.95%1.95%2.95%
Year 1 PV (M)633,948.81640,228.50646,508.19
Year 2 PV (M)738,915.56753,626.99768,483.42
Year 3 PV (M)831,696.19856,657.36882,113.04
Year 4 PV (M)913,252.17949,978.92987,802.42
Year 5 PV (M)984,479.031,034,214.301,085,939.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,502,426.4233,093,909.5634,749,073.11
Equity Value (M)35,604,718.1737,328,615.6339,119,919.82
Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.691,924.691,924.69
Fair Value$18,498.96$19,394.63$20,325.33
Upside / Downside126.29%137.24%148.63%

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