DDM Analysis: 9992.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$148.18 - $400.14	$227.82
Multi-Stage	$100.11 - $109.43	$104.68
Blended Fair Value	$166.25
Current Price	$243.19
Upside	-31.64%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	36.95%	0.00%	0.29	0.09	0.17	0.15	0.27	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	216.33%	-45.85%	9.42%	-42.47%	346.77%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.34%	0.51%	0.96%	0.42%	0.39%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,305.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,445.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,859.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,661.12	1,038.20	622.92
Cash Retained (M)	6,859.76	6,859.76	6,859.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,661.12	-1,038.20	-622.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,198.64	5,821.56	6,236.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,333.37	1,333.37	1,333.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.90	4.37	4.68
LTM Dividend per Share	1.08	1.08	1.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.90	4.37	4.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.98	5.45	5.76
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$148.18	$227.82	$400.14
Upside / Downside	-39.07%	-6.32%	64.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,305.61	8,845.47	9,420.43	10,032.76	10,684.89	11,379.41	11,720.79
Payout Ratio	17.41%	31.93%	46.44%	60.96%	75.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,445.85	2,824.05	4,375.31	6,116.30	8,065.13	10,241.46	10,841.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,565.42	2,589.73	2,614.05
Year 2 PV (M)	3,610.60	3,679.37	3,748.79
Year 3 PV (M)	4,585.05	4,716.67	4,850.79
Year 4 PV (M)	5,492.27	5,703.49	5,920.74
Year 5 PV (M)	6,335.61	6,641.62	6,959.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	110,895.74	116,252.04	121,813.35
Equity Value (M)	133,484.69	139,582.93	145,907.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,333.37	1,333.37	1,333.37
Fair Value	$100.11	$104.68	$109.43
Upside / Downside	-58.83%	-56.95%	-55.00%

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Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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