DDM Analysis: 9937.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.22 - $40.61	$32.16
Multi-Stage	$54.15 - $59.45	$56.75
Blended Fair Value	$44.45
Current Price	$61.80
Upside	-28.07%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.98%	5.76%	2.10	2.10	2.10	2.31	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	1.40	1.20
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-8.70%	15.00%	0.00%	-0.02%	0.02%	42.86%	16.67%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.42%	3.18%	3.41%	4.68%	3.97%	4.80%	4.84%	4.93%	3.52%	3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	734.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	648.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)	85.85

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	146.97	91.85	55.11
Cash Retained (M)	85.85	85.85	85.85
(-) Cash Required (M)	-146.97	-91.85	-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-61.12	-6.01	30.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	308.35	308.35	308.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.20	-0.02	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	2.10	2.10	2.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.20	-0.02	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.91	2.09	2.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.46%	6.46%	6.46%
Growth Rate	-1.02%	-0.02%	0.98%
Fair Value	$25.22	$32.16	$40.61
Upside / Downside	-59.19%	-47.96%	-34.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	734.84	734.69	734.55	734.41	734.26	734.12	756.14
Payout Ratio	88.32%	88.65%	88.99%	89.33%	89.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	648.99	651.34	653.68	656.02	658.37	660.71	699.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.46%	6.46%	6.46%
Growth Rate	-1.02%	-0.02%	0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)	605.68	611.80	617.92
Year 2 PV (M)	565.25	576.73	588.32
Year 3 PV (M)	527.51	543.66	560.14
Year 4 PV (M)	492.29	512.48	533.30
Year 5 PV (M)	459.41	483.09	507.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,045.75	14,769.75	15,523.31
Equity Value (M)	16,695.88	17,497.51	18,330.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	308.35	308.35	308.35
Fair Value	$54.15	$56.75	$59.45
Upside / Downside	-12.39%	-8.18%	-3.81%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

National Petroleum Co., Ltd. (9937.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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