DDM Analysis: 9202.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3,727.55 - $6,441.42	$4,894.80
Multi-Stage	$5,775.06 - $6,341.50	$6,052.87
Blended Fair Value	$5,473.83
Current Price	$2,861.00
Upside	91.33%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-1.30%	8.43%	46.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	49.25	39.40	41.24	34.32	27.42
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	25.00%	-4.46%	20.17%	25.15%	33.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.01%	1.09%	1.01%	0.88%	0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	148,334.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	47,042.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	101,292.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29,666.80	18,541.75	11,125.05
Cash Retained (M)	101,292.00	101,292.00	101,292.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29,666.80	-18,541.75	-11,125.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	71,625.20	82,750.25	90,166.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	509.70	509.70	509.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	140.52	162.35	176.90
LTM Dividend per Share	92.29	92.29	92.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	140.52	162.35	176.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend	232.82	254.64	269.20
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	0.82%	1.82%	2.82%
Fair Value	$3,727.55	$4,894.80	$6,441.42
Upside / Downside	30.29%	71.09%	125.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	148,334.00	151,027.21	153,769.32	156,561.21	159,403.79	162,297.99	167,166.93
Payout Ratio	31.71%	43.37%	55.03%	66.69%	78.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	47,042.00	65,501.79	84,616.39	104,403.51	124,881.26	146,068.19	154,629.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	0.82%	1.82%	2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	60,551.75	61,152.37	61,752.98
Year 2 PV (M)	72,310.53	73,752.16	75,208.01
Year 3 PV (M)	82,477.53	84,956.27	87,484.17
Year 4 PV (M)	91,199.27	94,871.92	98,654.40
Year 5 PV (M)	98,610.52	103,599.15	108,787.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,538,403.69	2,666,819.43	2,800,380.53
Equity Value (M)	2,943,553.30	3,085,151.29	3,232,267.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	509.70	509.70	509.70
Fair Value	$5,775.06	$6,052.87	$6,341.50
Upside / Downside	101.85%	111.56%	121.65%

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ANA Holdings Inc. (9202.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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