DDM Analysis: 82800.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$356.84 - $1,367.99	$1,022.45
Multi-Stage	$166.38 - $182.18	$174.13
Blended Fair Value	$598.29
Current Price	$24.52
Upside	2,340.01%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.21%	10.53%	0.85	0.68	0.64	0.39	0.42	0.44	0.46	0.46	0.41	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	25.40%	5.46%	66.86%	-8.32%	-3.94%	-5.41%	0.91%	12.79%	7.37%	21.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.62%	3.94%	3.12%	1.41%	1.24%	1.67%	1.32%	1.21%	1.48%	1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	44,993.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,783.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39,209.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8,998.63	5,624.14	3,374.49
Cash Retained (M)	39,209.86	39,209.86	39,209.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8,998.63	-5,624.14	-3,374.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30,211.23	33,585.71	35,835.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,540.99	6,540.99	6,540.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.62	5.13	5.48
LTM Dividend per Share	0.88	0.88	0.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.62	5.13	5.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.50	6.02	6.36
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$356.84	$1,022.45	$1,367.99
Upside / Downside	1,355.31%	4,069.84%	5,479.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	44,993.14	47,917.69	51,032.34	54,349.45	57,882.16	61,644.50	63,493.84
Payout Ratio	12.85%	28.28%	43.71%	59.14%	74.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,783.28	13,552.54	22,307.37	32,143.07	43,163.15	55,480.05	58,731.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	12,532.13	12,650.92	12,769.71
Year 2 PV (M)	19,074.66	19,437.98	19,804.72
Year 3 PV (M)	25,415.57	26,145.16	26,888.58
Year 4 PV (M)	31,559.49	32,773.18	34,021.54
Year 5 PV (M)	37,510.93	39,322.72	41,203.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	962,203.61	1,008,678.41	1,056,931.90
Equity Value (M)	1,088,296.38	1,139,008.36	1,191,620.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,540.99	6,540.99	6,540.99
Fair Value	$166.38	$174.13	$182.18
Upside / Downside	578.55%	610.17%	642.97%

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Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (82800.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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