Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Smoore International Holdings Limited (6969.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.96 - $6.06$4.94
Multi-Stage$8.51 - $9.37$8.93
Blended Fair Value$6.94
Current Price$16.64
Upside-58.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS-13.52%0.00%0.090.120.240.380.000.190.030.010.000.00
YoY Growth---23.16%-50.35%-38.91%0.00%-100.00%552.22%351.96%817.79%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%2.03%2.20%1.19%0.00%0.67%0.10%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,723.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,111.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,611.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)544.63340.39204.24
Cash Retained (M)1,611.711,611.711,611.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-544.63-340.39-204.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,067.081,271.321,407.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,159.556,159.556,159.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.96$4.94$6.06
Upside / Downside-76.19%-70.30%-63.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,723.162,695.932,668.972,642.282,615.852,589.702,667.39
Payout Ratio40.81%50.65%60.49%70.33%80.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,111.441,365.531,614.421,858.202,096.942,330.732,467.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,266.291,279.211,292.13
Year 2 PV (M)1,388.291,416.771,445.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,481.791,527.621,574.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,550.641,614.911,681.16
Year 5 PV (M)1,598.261,681.491,768.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,142.8347,493.5349,941.14
Equity Value (M)52,428.1155,013.5157,702.48
Shares Outstanding (M)6,159.556,159.556,159.55
Fair Value$8.51$8.93$9.37
Upside / Downside-48.85%-46.33%-43.70%

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