DDM Analysis: 603922.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.37 - $0.49	$0.43
Multi-Stage	$0.68 - $0.75	$0.71
Blended Fair Value	$0.57
Current Price	$22.54
Upside	-97.46%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-31.68%	-29.28%	0.02	0.00	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.15	0.26	0.10	0.10	1.10
YoY Growth	-	-	10,030.35%	-99.39%	116.84%	-45.31%	-79.73%	-42.21%	144.95%	4.26%	-90.88%	56.31%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.09%	0.00%	0.22%	0.09%	0.25%	1.34%	1.55%	0.59%	0.55%	6.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.53

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.95	2.47	1.48
Cash Retained (M)	18.53	18.53	18.53
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.95	-2.47	-1.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	14.58	16.06	17.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	180.22	180.22	180.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	-11.04%	-10.04%	-9.04%
Fair Value	$0.37	$0.43	$0.49
Upside / Downside	-98.35%	-98.08%	-97.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19.74	17.76	15.98	14.37	12.93	11.63	11.98
Payout Ratio	6.14%	22.91%	39.68%	56.46%	73.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.21	4.07	6.34	8.12	9.47	10.47	11.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	-11.04%	-10.04%	-9.04%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.66	3.70	3.74
Year 2 PV (M)	5.13	5.25	5.37
Year 3 PV (M)	5.91	6.12	6.32
Year 4 PV (M)	6.21	6.49	6.79
Year 5 PV (M)	6.18	6.53	6.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	94.99	100.45	106.16
Equity Value (M)	122.09	128.55	135.29
Shares Outstanding (M)	180.22	180.22	180.22
Fair Value	$0.68	$0.71	$0.75
Upside / Downside	-96.99%	-96.84%	-96.67%

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Suzhou Jin Hong Shun Auto Parts Co., Ltd. (603922.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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