DDM Analysis: 603899.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$152.50 - $286.35	$268.35
Multi-Stage	$45.83 - $50.12	$47.94
Blended Fair Value	$158.15
Current Price	$27.43
Upside	476.54%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.04%	40.58%	0.81	0.50	0.61	0.50	0.40	0.30	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25
YoY Growth	-	-	61.69%	-17.00%	20.04%	26.01%	33.33%	20.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	828.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.66%	1.30%	1.23%	1.03%	0.47%	0.65%	0.67%	0.82%	1.41%	1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,322.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	922.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	400.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	264.51	165.32	99.19
Cash Retained (M)	400.45	400.45	400.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-264.51	-165.32	-99.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	135.94	235.13	301.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	918.51	918.51	918.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.26	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	1.00	1.00	1.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.26	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.26	1.33
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$152.50	$268.35	$286.35
Upside / Downside	455.97%	878.32%	943.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,322.53	1,408.49	1,500.04	1,597.54	1,701.38	1,811.97	1,866.33
Payout Ratio	69.72%	73.78%	77.83%	81.89%	85.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	922.08	1,039.14	1,167.52	1,308.20	1,462.24	1,630.78	1,726.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	968.40	977.58	986.76
Year 2 PV (M)	1,013.98	1,033.29	1,052.79
Year 3 PV (M)	1,058.82	1,089.21	1,120.19
Year 4 PV (M)	1,102.93	1,145.35	1,188.97
Year 5 PV (M)	1,146.32	1,201.69	1,259.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	36,808.02	38,585.86	40,431.75
Equity Value (M)	42,098.48	44,032.99	46,039.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	918.51	918.51	918.51
Fair Value	$45.83	$47.94	$50.12
Upside / Downside	67.09%	74.77%	82.73%

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Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (603899.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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