DDM Analysis: 603012.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.87 - $49.41	$20.58
Multi-Stage	$7.00 - $7.67	$7.33
Blended Fair Value	$13.95
Current Price	$5.88
Upside	137.31%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.76%	-1.22%	0.20	0.14	0.11	0.13	0.11	0.12	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	45.63%	18.06%	-10.26%	13.55%	-9.09%	68.92%	69.68%	-8.68%	-23.65%	-72.21%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.38%	2.44%	1.99%	2.21%	1.94%	1.98%	0.81%	0.63%	0.48%	0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	159.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	87.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)	72.17

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.87	19.92	11.95
Cash Retained (M)	72.17	72.17	72.17
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.87	-19.92	-11.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.30	52.25	60.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	634.84	634.84	634.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	4.41%	5.41%	6.41%
Fair Value	$9.87	$20.58	$49.41
Upside / Downside	67.80%	250.00%	740.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	159.34	167.97	177.06	186.65	196.76	207.41	213.63
Payout Ratio	54.71%	61.77%	68.82%	75.88%	82.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	87.17	103.75	121.86	141.64	163.19	186.67	197.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	4.41%	5.41%	6.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	96.46	97.38	98.30
Year 2 PV (M)	105.33	107.36	109.41
Year 3 PV (M)	113.82	117.12	120.49
Year 4 PV (M)	121.93	126.67	131.54
Year 5 PV (M)	129.66	135.99	142.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,878.19	4,067.50	4,264.12
Equity Value (M)	4,445.40	4,652.02	4,866.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	634.84	634.84	634.84
Fair Value	$7.00	$7.33	$7.67
Upside / Downside	19.09%	24.62%	30.37%

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Shanghai Chuangli Group Co., Ltd. (603012.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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