DDM Analysis: 601965.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.26 - $8.81	$7.52
Multi-Stage	$5.21 - $5.67	$5.44
Blended Fair Value	$6.48
Current Price	$17.88
Upside	-63.76%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.25%	10.88%	0.36	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.25	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	19.67%	1.53%	-0.11%	20.10%	1.96%	25.03%	34.60%	47.55%	52.16%	-49.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.93%	1.52%	1.22%	2.08%	1.66%	2.74%	2.27%	1.75%	0.96%	0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	904.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	104.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	800.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	180.81	113.00	67.80
Cash Retained (M)	800.03	800.03	800.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-180.81	-113.00	-67.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	619.22	687.03	732.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	989.95	989.95	989.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.69	0.74
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.69	0.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.73	0.80	0.84
WACC / Discount Rate	17.81%	17.81%	17.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$6.26	$7.52	$8.81
Upside / Downside	-64.99%	-57.93%	-50.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	904.03	962.79	1,025.37	1,092.02	1,163.00	1,238.60	1,275.76
Payout Ratio	11.50%	27.20%	42.90%	58.60%	74.30%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	104.00	261.91	439.91	639.94	864.12	1,114.74	1,180.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	17.81%	17.81%	17.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	220.22	222.31	224.40
Year 2 PV (M)	311.02	316.94	322.92
Year 3 PV (M)	380.43	391.35	402.48
Year 4 PV (M)	431.94	448.55	465.63
Year 5 PV (M)	468.52	491.15	514.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,348.41	3,510.14	3,678.06
Equity Value (M)	5,160.54	5,380.45	5,608.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	989.95	989.95	989.95
Fair Value	$5.21	$5.44	$5.67
Upside / Downside	-70.84%	-69.60%	-68.32%

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China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (601965.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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