DDM Analysis: 601808.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.89 - $24.76	$17.65
Multi-Stage	$16.76 - $18.38	$17.56
Blended Fair Value	$17.60
Current Price	$13.46
Upside	30.76%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	41.81%	-0.68%	0.40	0.16	0.15	0.17	0.16	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.07	0.48
YoY Growth	-	-	150.90%	6.67%	-11.76%	6.25%	128.57%	16.67%	20.00%	-26.47%	-85.83%	11.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.85%	0.83%	1.03%	1.25%	1.08%	0.60%	0.57%	0.44%	0.54%	3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,901.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,706.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,194.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	780.33	487.70	292.62
Cash Retained (M)	2,194.74	2,194.74	2,194.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-780.33	-487.70	-292.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,414.42	1,707.04	1,902.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,771.59	4,771.59	4,771.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.36	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.36	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.65	0.72	0.76
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	2.08%	3.08%	4.08%
Fair Value	$12.89	$17.65	$24.76
Upside / Downside	-4.22%	31.10%	83.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,901.63	4,021.90	4,145.88	4,273.68	4,405.42	4,541.23	4,677.46
Payout Ratio	43.75%	53.00%	62.25%	71.50%	80.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,706.88	2,131.54	2,580.76	3,055.65	3,557.36	4,087.10	4,326.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	2.08%	3.08%	4.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,967.95	1,987.23	2,006.50
Year 2 PV (M)	2,199.82	2,243.13	2,286.86
Year 3 PV (M)	2,404.71	2,476.07	2,548.84
Year 4 PV (M)	2,584.68	2,687.46	2,793.27
Year 5 PV (M)	2,741.66	2,878.61	3,020.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	68,095.55	71,496.86	75,032.74
Equity Value (M)	79,994.38	83,769.35	87,689.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,771.59	4,771.59	4,771.59
Fair Value	$16.76	$17.56	$18.38
Upside / Downside	24.55%	30.43%	36.53%

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China Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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