DDM Analysis: 601789.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.94 - $7.74	$5.44
Multi-Stage	$6.20 - $6.80	$6.49
Blended Fair Value	$5.96
Current Price	$5.69
Upside	4.82%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.43%	5.37%	0.33	0.30	0.31	0.09	0.24	0.28	0.27	0.25	0.21	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	8.07%	-2.85%	257.34%	-63.31%	-14.00%	2.11%	7.93%	19.77%	-20.18%	35.24%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.80%	7.05%	5.78%	1.19%	6.00%	6.67%	5.66%	6.23%	3.04%	5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	271.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	213.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	54.23	33.90	20.34
Cash Retained (M)	57.90	57.90	57.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-54.23	-33.90	-20.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.67	24.00	37.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,120.34	1,120.34	1,120.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.43%	2.43%	3.43%
Fair Value	$3.94	$5.44	$7.74
Upside / Downside	-30.83%	-4.46%	36.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	271.17	277.76	284.50	291.41	298.49	305.75	314.92
Payout Ratio	78.65%	80.92%	83.19%	85.46%	87.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	213.27	224.76	236.68	249.04	261.87	275.17	291.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.43%	2.43%	3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	209.14	211.20	213.26
Year 2 PV (M)	204.92	208.98	213.08
Year 3 PV (M)	200.64	206.64	212.75
Year 4 PV (M)	196.31	204.17	212.26
Year 5 PV (M)	191.95	201.60	211.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,941.94	6,240.69	6,551.33
Equity Value (M)	6,944.91	7,273.27	7,614.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,120.34	1,120.34	1,120.34
Fair Value	$6.20	$6.49	$6.80
Upside / Downside	8.94%	14.10%	19.45%

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Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. (601789.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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