DDM Analysis: 601199.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$44.51 - $86.32	$80.89
Multi-Stage	$13.37 - $14.64	$13.99
Blended Fair Value	$47.44
Current Price	$5.58
Upside	750.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.31%	12.11%	0.15	0.09	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.07	0.08	0.11	0.09	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	65.54%	0.00%	12.50%	0.00%	14.29%	-12.50%	-27.27%	22.22%	56.52%	21.05%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.82%	1.85%	1.16%	1.19%	1.90%	1.89%	1.84%	2.22%	1.11%	0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	405.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	123.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	282.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	81.18	50.73	30.44
Cash Retained (M)	282.48	282.48	282.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-81.18	-50.73	-30.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)	201.31	231.75	252.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	935.12	935.12	935.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.25	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.25	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$44.51	$80.89	$86.32
Upside / Downside	697.73%	1,349.71%	1,446.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	405.88	432.26	460.36	490.28	522.15	556.09	572.77
Payout Ratio	30.40%	42.32%	54.24%	66.16%	78.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	123.40	182.94	249.70	324.37	407.70	500.48	529.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	170.45	172.06	173.68
Year 2 PV (M)	216.76	220.89	225.06
Year 3 PV (M)	262.35	269.88	277.55
Year 4 PV (M)	307.21	319.03	331.18
Year 5 PV (M)	351.37	368.34	385.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,193.75	11,734.41	12,295.76
Equity Value (M)	12,501.88	13,084.60	13,689.19
Shares Outstanding (M)	935.12	935.12	935.12
Fair Value	$13.37	$13.99	$14.64
Upside / Downside	139.59%	150.76%	162.35%

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Jiangsu Jiangnan Water Co., Ltd. (601199.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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