DDM Analysis: 601020.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.38 - $52.88	$33.95
Multi-Stage	$16.45 - $17.98	$17.20
Blended Fair Value	$25.57
Current Price	$27.31
Upside	-6.36%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.03%	9.44%	0.08	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.09	0.11	0.11	0.07	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	104.63%	23.38%	16.13%	-5.63%	-65.68%	-21.60%	-1.00%	68.62%	11.11%	78.57%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.41%	0.46%	0.32%	0.23%	0.50%	1.55%	1.35%	0.94%	0.28%	0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	901.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	57.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)	844.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	180.34	112.72	67.63
Cash Retained (M)	844.35	844.35	844.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-180.34	-112.72	-67.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	664.01	731.64	776.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	779.55	779.55	779.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.85	0.94	1.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.85	0.94	1.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.01	1.07
WACC / Discount Rate	9.68%	9.68%	9.68%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$23.38	$33.95	$52.88
Upside / Downside	-14.38%	24.30%	93.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	901.72	960.34	1,022.76	1,089.24	1,160.04	1,235.44	1,272.50
Payout Ratio	6.36%	23.09%	39.82%	56.54%	73.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	57.37	221.74	407.24	615.91	849.99	1,111.89	1,177.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.68%	9.68%	9.68%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	200.28	202.18	204.08
Year 2 PV (M)	332.23	338.55	344.94
Year 3 PV (M)	453.84	466.86	480.14
Year 4 PV (M)	565.70	587.46	609.84
Year 5 PV (M)	668.40	700.68	734.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,599.97	11,111.96	11,643.53
Equity Value (M)	12,820.42	13,407.69	14,016.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	779.55	779.55	779.55
Fair Value	$16.45	$17.20	$17.98
Upside / Downside	-39.78%	-37.02%	-34.16%

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Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd. (601020.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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