DDM Analysis: 600822.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.17 - $0.22	$0.20
Multi-Stage	$0.33 - $0.37	$0.35
Blended Fair Value	$0.27
Current Price	$11.08
Upside	-97.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.57%	-36.59%	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.42
YoY Growth	-	-	74.09%	-56.79%	-33.27%	-35.63%	108.85%	-53.55%	-51.33%	0.00%	-100.00%	-37.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.08%	0.04%	0.11%	0.16%	0.22%	0.12%	0.20%	0.38%	0.00%	2.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	24.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.90	3.06	1.84
Cash Retained (M)	21.98	21.98	21.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.90	-3.06	-1.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.09	18.92	20.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	495.86	495.86	495.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	-11.15%	-10.15%	-9.15%
Fair Value	$0.17	$0.20	$0.22
Upside / Downside	-98.46%	-98.21%	-97.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	24.48	22.00	19.77	17.76	15.96	14.34	14.77
Payout Ratio	10.21%	26.17%	42.13%	58.08%	74.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.50	5.76	8.33	10.32	11.82	12.90	13.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	-11.15%	-10.15%	-9.15%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.20	5.26	5.32
Year 2 PV (M)	6.80	6.96	7.11
Year 3 PV (M)	7.62	7.88	8.14
Year 4 PV (M)	7.89	8.25	8.62
Year 5 PV (M)	7.79	8.23	8.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	128.73	136.14	143.89
Equity Value (M)	164.03	172.72	181.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	495.86	495.86	495.86
Fair Value	$0.33	$0.35	$0.37
Upside / Downside	-97.01%	-96.86%	-96.69%

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Shanghai Material Trading Co., Ltd. (600822.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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