DDM Analysis: 600018.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.93 - $19.33	$13.66
Multi-Stage	$14.75 - $16.21	$15.47
Blended Fair Value	$14.56
Current Price	$5.45
Upside	167.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.72%	5.61%	0.26	0.19	0.24	0.17	0.19	0.20	0.23	0.20	0.19	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	34.92%	-21.38%	40.09%	-9.33%	-6.51%	-12.65%	18.30%	4.17%	-16.94%	53.23%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.44%	3.53%	4.38%	3.17%	3.99%	4.56%	3.17%	2.80%	3.22%	4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,416.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,940.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12,475.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,883.26	1,802.04	1,081.22
Cash Retained (M)	12,475.39	12,475.39	12,475.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,883.26	-1,802.04	-1,081.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9,592.13	10,673.35	11,394.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	23,252.40	23,252.40	23,252.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.41	0.46	0.49
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.41	0.46	0.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.54	0.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	1.44%	2.44%	3.44%
Fair Value	$9.93	$13.66	$19.33
Upside / Downside	82.15%	150.64%	254.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,416.30	14,767.91	15,128.09	15,497.06	15,875.02	16,262.21	16,750.07
Payout Ratio	13.46%	28.77%	44.08%	59.39%	74.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,940.91	4,248.82	6,668.16	9,202.98	11,857.48	14,635.99	15,493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	1.44%	2.44%	3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,950.29	3,989.23	4,028.17
Year 2 PV (M)	5,764.03	5,878.24	5,993.57
Year 3 PV (M)	7,396.22	7,617.12	7,842.38
Year 4 PV (M)	8,860.01	9,214.58	9,579.69
Year 5 PV (M)	10,167.73	10,678.89	11,210.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	306,897.04	322,325.43	338,368.16
Equity Value (M)	343,035.32	359,703.48	377,022.36
Shares Outstanding (M)	23,252.40	23,252.40	23,252.40
Fair Value	$14.75	$15.47	$16.21
Upside / Downside	170.69%	183.84%	197.51%

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Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. (600018.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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