DDM Analysis: 2233.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.43 - $6.38	$4.64
Multi-Stage	$5.80 - $6.37	$6.08
Blended Fair Value	$5.36
Current Price	$1.38
Upside	288.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.46%	3.27%	0.02	0.07	0.09	0.12	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-65.57%	-22.99%	-28.01%	94.17%	23.60%	27.76%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-90.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.55%	10.85%	10.69%	10.67%	6.42%	4.41%	4.23%	0.00%	0.00%	0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,263.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	489.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	773.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	252.71	157.95	94.77
Cash Retained (M)	773.71	773.71	773.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-252.71	-157.95	-94.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	520.99	615.76	678.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,451.15	5,451.15	5,451.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.20	0.21
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	0.86%	1.86%	2.86%
Fair Value	$3.43	$4.64	$6.38
Upside / Downside	148.42%	235.98%	362.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,263.56	1,287.07	1,311.01	1,335.40	1,360.25	1,385.56	1,427.12
Payout Ratio	38.77%	49.01%	59.26%	69.51%	79.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	489.86	630.85	776.92	928.20	1,084.85	1,247.00	1,320.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	0.86%	1.86%	2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)	587.54	593.37	599.19
Year 2 PV (M)	673.92	687.34	700.91
Year 3 PV (M)	749.88	772.40	795.37
Year 4 PV (M)	816.26	849.12	882.96
Year 5 PV (M)	873.87	918.05	964.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	27,895.29	29,305.85	30,772.90
Equity Value (M)	31,596.75	33,126.14	34,715.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,451.15	5,451.15	5,451.15
Fair Value	$5.80	$6.08	$6.37
Upside / Downside	320.03%	340.36%	361.48%

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West China Cement Limited (2233.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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