DDM Analysis: 1789.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.82 - $86.06	$34.44
Multi-Stage	$9.29 - $10.16	$9.72
Blended Fair Value	$22.08
Current Price	$5.46
Upside	304.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.47%	4.18%	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.04	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-25.05%	156.69%	-34.70%	-51.32%	134.45%	0.43%	-56.23%	45.84%	-48.78%	219.97%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.90%	0.98%	0.25%	0.61%	0.60%	0.37%	0.75%	2.64%	1.90%	3.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	484.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	107.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	376.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	96.81	60.51	36.31
Cash Retained (M)	376.46	376.46	376.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-96.81	-60.51	-36.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	279.64	315.95	340.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,118.41	1,118.41	1,118.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	5.47%	6.47%	7.47%
Fair Value	$16.82	$34.44	$86.06
Upside / Downside	208.14%	530.83%	1,476.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	484.07	515.40	548.77	584.29	622.12	662.39	682.26
Payout Ratio	22.23%	35.78%	49.34%	62.89%	76.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	107.61	184.44	270.75	367.48	475.58	596.15	631.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	5.47%	6.47%	7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	169.73	171.34	172.95
Year 2 PV (M)	229.30	233.66	238.07
Year 3 PV (M)	286.39	294.62	302.99
Year 4 PV (M)	341.09	354.21	367.71
Year 5 PV (M)	393.47	412.48	432.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,968.79	9,402.09	9,851.99
Equity Value (M)	10,388.77	10,868.41	11,365.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,118.41	1,118.41	1,118.41
Fair Value	$9.29	$9.72	$10.16
Upside / Downside	70.13%	77.98%	86.13%

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AK Medical Holdings Limited (1789.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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