DDM Analysis: 1610.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.44 - $3.79	$3.06
Multi-Stage	$5.47 - $6.03	$5.74
Blended Fair Value	$4.40
Current Price	$1.44
Upside	205.78%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.02	0.00	0.13	0.15	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.86	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	-14.24%	16.65%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.15%	0.00%	6.35%	6.03%	5.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	62.91%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,188.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,119.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	237.78	148.61	89.17
Cash Retained (M)	1,119.90	1,119.90	1,119.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-237.78	-148.61	-89.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)	882.12	971.29	1,030.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,582.63	4,582.63	4,582.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.44	$3.06	$3.79
Upside / Downside	69.38%	112.65%	162.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,188.92	1,177.03	1,165.26	1,153.61	1,142.07	1,130.65	1,164.57
Payout Ratio	5.81%	22.64%	39.48%	56.32%	73.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.02	266.53	460.08	649.73	835.55	1,017.58	1,077.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	248.11	250.64	253.17
Year 2 PV (M)	398.68	406.86	415.12
Year 3 PV (M)	524.12	540.33	556.87
Year 4 PV (M)	627.43	653.43	680.23
Year 5 PV (M)	711.31	748.35	786.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,550.45	23,724.71	24,947.38
Equity Value (M)	25,060.10	26,324.31	27,639.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,582.63	4,582.63	4,582.63
Fair Value	$5.47	$5.74	$6.03
Upside / Downside	279.76%	298.91%	318.85%

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COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (1610.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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