DDM Analysis: 1530.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.71 - $310.18	$100.03
Multi-Stage	$32.23 - $35.26	$33.72
Blended Fair Value	$66.87
Current Price	$21.57
Upside	210.03%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	102.41%	-1.70%	0.23	0.09	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	146.83%	-46.09%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-89.17%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.96%	1.35%	2.32%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	0.70%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,017.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	779.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,237.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	803.44	502.15	301.29
Cash Retained (M)	3,237.22	3,237.22	3,237.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-803.44	-502.15	-301.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,433.78	2,735.07	2,935.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,454.55	2,454.55	2,454.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.99	1.11	1.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.99	1.11	1.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.31	1.43	1.51
WACC / Discount Rate	8.02%	8.02%	8.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$54.71	$100.03	$310.18
Upside / Downside	153.65%	363.75%	1,338.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,017.19	4,278.30	4,556.39	4,852.56	5,167.97	5,503.89	5,669.01
Payout Ratio	19.42%	33.53%	47.65%	61.77%	75.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	779.97	1,434.63	2,171.10	2,997.25	3,921.62	4,953.50	5,243.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.02%	8.02%	8.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,315.59	1,328.06	1,340.53
Year 2 PV (M)	1,825.74	1,860.52	1,895.62
Year 3 PV (M)	2,311.33	2,377.68	2,445.29
Year 4 PV (M)	2,773.23	2,879.88	2,989.57
Year 5 PV (M)	3,212.27	3,367.42	3,528.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	67,676.94	70,945.76	74,339.68
Equity Value (M)	79,115.09	82,759.32	86,539.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,454.55	2,454.55	2,454.55
Fair Value	$32.23	$33.72	$35.26
Upside / Downside	49.43%	56.31%	63.45%

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3SBio Inc. (1530.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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