DDM Analysis: 1501.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.87 - $23.15	$19.39
Multi-Stage	$26.70 - $29.38	$28.01
Blended Fair Value	$23.70
Current Price	$22.76
Upside	4.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-2.47%	0.00%	0.28	0.24	0.26	0.28	0.17	0.31	0.39	0.00	0.07	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	16.85%	-7.69%	-7.67%	62.86%	-45.58%	-19.89%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.01%	0.91%	1.01%	1.48%	0.49%	1.12%	1.64%	0.00%	0.31%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	361.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	47.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	314.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	72.36	45.23	27.14
Cash Retained (M)	314.71	314.71	314.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-72.36	-45.23	-27.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)	242.34	269.48	287.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	171.10	171.10	171.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.42	1.58	1.68
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.42	1.58	1.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.69	1.85	1.96
WACC / Discount Rate	8.45%	8.45%	8.45%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$15.87	$19.39	$23.15
Upside / Downside	-30.29%	-14.82%	1.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	361.82	358.20	354.62	351.08	347.56	344.09	354.41
Payout Ratio	13.02%	28.42%	43.81%	59.21%	74.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	47.12	101.79	155.37	207.87	259.30	309.68	327.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.45%	8.45%	8.45%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	92.91	93.86	94.81
Year 2 PV (M)	129.45	132.10	134.79
Year 3 PV (M)	158.08	162.97	167.96
Year 4 PV (M)	179.99	187.45	195.14
Year 5 PV (M)	196.22	206.43	217.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,811.79	4,010.28	4,216.95
Equity Value (M)	4,568.44	4,793.10	5,026.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	171.10	171.10	171.10
Fair Value	$26.70	$28.01	$29.38
Upside / Downside	17.31%	23.08%	29.08%

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Sector

Shanghai Kindly Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. (1501.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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