Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $436.24 - $1,124.43 | $661.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $311.88 - $340.39 | $325.88 |
| Blended Fair Value | $493.50 | |
| Current Price | $341.91 | |
| Upside | 44.34% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 13.41% | 14.21% | 7.64 | 6.68 | 5.88 | 5.18 | 4.57 | 4.07 | 3.61 | 3.18 | 2.77 | 2.40 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 14.29% | 13.57% | 13.52% | 13.36% | 12.33% | 12.81% | 13.34% | 14.85% | 15.32% | 18.87% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.32% | 2.26% | 2.38% | 2.54% | 1.97% | 3.77% | 2.30% | 2.16% | 1.64% | 1.51% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,014.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 447.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 566.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 202.86 | 126.79 | 76.07 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 566.50 | 566.50 | 566.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -202.86 | -126.79 | -76.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 363.64 | 439.71 | 490.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 53.23 | 53.23 | 53.23 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.83 | 8.26 | 9.21 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8.41 | 8.41 | 8.41 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.83 | 8.26 | 9.21 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 15.25 | 16.67 | 17.63 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.41% | 6.41% | 7.41% |
| Fair Value | $436.24 | $661.13 | $1,124.43 |
| Upside / Downside | 27.59% | 93.36% | 228.87% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,014.30 | 1,079.36 | 1,148.59 | 1,222.26 | 1,300.66 | 1,384.08 | 1,425.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 44.15% | 53.32% | 62.49% | 71.66% | 80.83% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 447.80 | 575.50 | 717.74 | 875.87 | 1,051.32 | 1,245.67 | 1,318.68 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.41% | 6.41% | 7.41% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 522.55 | 527.51 | 532.47 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 591.75 | 603.03 | 614.41 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 655.67 | 674.51 | 693.70 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 714.60 | 742.11 | 770.40 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 768.81 | 805.97 | 844.56 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 13,346.49 | 13,991.67 | 14,661.56 |
| Equity Value (M) | 16,599.87 | 17,344.79 | 18,117.10 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 53.23 | 53.23 | 53.23 |
| Fair Value | $311.88 | $325.88 | $340.39 |
| Upside / Downside | -8.78% | -4.69% | -0.45% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.45% | $2.47 | 28.36% |
| SF | Stifel Financial Corp. | 1.45% | $1.86 | 30.82% |
| 0HFN.L | Analog Devices, Inc. | 1.44% | $3.90 | 84.88% |
| HAYN | Haynes International, Inc. | 1.44% | $0.88 | 30.16% |
| 0I58.L | Cummins Inc. | 1.43% | $7.42 | 38.53% |
| 0HRJ.L | CSX Corporation | 1.42% | $0.51 | 33.32% |
| OLED | Universal Display Corporation | 1.42% | $1.73 | 37.24% |
| BBW | Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.86 | 19.50% |
| LBC | Luther Burbank Corporation | 1.41% | $0.13 | 17.07% |
| SNDR | Schneider National, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.38 | 58.72% |
| 0R13.L | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 1.40% | $1.16 | 36.55% |
| COHN | Cohen & Company Inc. | 1.40% | $0.35 | 48.05% |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 1.40% | $2.48 | 39.81% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | 1.40% | $1.54 | 44.05% |
| CXT | Crane NXT, Co. | 1.39% | $0.66 | 24.82% |
| ESBA | Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 1.39% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| MMS | Maximus, Inc. | 1.39% | $1.21 | 21.54% |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 1.39% | $1.70 | 34.98% |
| ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | 1.38% | $0.24 | 34.61% |
| HYAC | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III | 1.38% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corporation | 1.38% | $0.36 | 18.11% |
| MCY | Mercury General Corporation | 1.38% | $1.27 | 16.00% |
| ACU | Acme United Corporation | 1.37% | $0.55 | 28.31% |
| DE | Deere & Company | 1.36% | $6.34 | 34.22% |
| HYAC-UN | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 | 1.36% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 1.36% | $2.56 | 52.52% |
| 0HIN.L | Assurant, Inc. | 1.35% | $3.22 | 19.47% |
| AL | Air Lease Corporation | 1.35% | $0.86 | 9.51% |
| BGCP | BGC Partners, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.06 | 11.88% |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | 1.34% | $3.55 | 33.23% |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.59 | 50.16% |
| 0K9L.L | Nucor Corporation | 1.33% | $2.22 | 31.04% |
| BY | Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 1.33% | $0.39 | 13.97% |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.33% | $1.09 | 35.19% |
| OPOF | Old Point Financial Corporation | 1.33% | $0.56 | 32.91% |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 1.33% | $2.50 | 27.85% |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 1.32% | $0.71 | 21.15% |
| VLEOX | Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class | 1.32% | $0.79 | 56.29% |
| 0IW7.L | Global Payments Inc. | 1.31% | $1.01 | 13.82% |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 1.31% | $1.92 | 27.59% |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66 | 1.31% | $0.27 | 6.72% |
| NDSN | Nordson Corporation | 1.31% | $3.15 | 36.67% |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 1.31% | $5.23 | 68.01% |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | 1.31% | $1.52 | 18.87% |
| 0L3I.L | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 1.30% | $1.29 | 28.42% |
| 0R2X.L | Corning Incorporated | 1.30% | $1.15 | 72.69% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 1.30% | $1.13 | 24.20% |
| GGG | Graco Inc. | 1.30% | $1.07 | 36.31% |
| HES | Hess Corporation | 1.30% | $1.94 | 26.90% |