Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. (003490.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133,987.55 - $508,421.58$390,317.93
Multi-Stage$62,939.11 - $68,868.01$65,849.22
Blended Fair Value$228,083.58
Current Price$22,750.00
Upside902.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.60%34.78%750.30760.6512.3049.02164.4968.09181.9790.6762.9337.91
YoY Growth---1.36%6,085.63%-74.91%-70.20%141.57%-62.58%100.70%44.08%66.00%-0.03%
Dividend Yield--3.52%3.45%0.05%0.16%0.60%0.54%0.82%0.40%0.29%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)948,002.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)281,569.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)666,432.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189,600.41118,500.2571,100.15
Cash Retained (M)666,432.94666,432.94666,432.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-189,600.41-118,500.25-71,100.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)476,832.54547,932.69595,332.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)370.82370.82370.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,285.881,477.621,605.44
LTM Dividend per Share759.31759.31759.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,285.881,477.621,605.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,045.192,236.932,364.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$133,987.55$390,317.93$508,421.58
Upside / Downside488.96%1,615.68%2,134.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)948,002.041,009,622.171,075,247.611,145,138.711,219,572.721,298,844.951,337,810.30
Payout Ratio29.70%41.76%53.82%65.88%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)281,569.10421,628.86578,706.76754,423.42950,538.191,168,960.461,237,474.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)389,943.53393,639.68397,335.83
Year 2 PV (M)494,995.60504,423.88513,941.10
Year 3 PV (M)596,800.71613,932.71631,389.49
Year 4 PV (M)695,432.74722,177.12749,685.57
Year 5 PV (M)790,964.10829,167.96868,833.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,371,069.2421,354,999.5022,376,587.09
Equity Value (M)23,339,205.9324,418,340.8625,537,773.05
Shares Outstanding (M)370.82370.82370.82
Fair Value$62,939.11$65,849.22$68,868.01
Upside / Downside176.66%189.45%202.72%

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