DDM Analysis: 003013.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$125.29 - $271.53	$254.46
Multi-Stage	$41.01 - $44.89	$42.91
Blended Fair Value	$148.69
Current Price	$15.31
Upside	871.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.58%	0.00%	0.53	0.47	0.40	0.67	0.00	0.22	0.32	0.44	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	12.73%	15.58%	-39.63%	0.00%	-100.00%	-30.47%	-26.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.46%	3.12%	2.18%	3.83%	0.00%	1.16%	1.67%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	542.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	204.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)	337.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	108.42	67.76	40.66
Cash Retained (M)	337.60	337.60	337.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-108.42	-67.76	-40.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)	229.19	269.84	296.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	397.04	397.04	397.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.58	0.68	0.75
LTM Dividend per Share	0.52	0.52	0.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.58	0.68	0.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.09	1.19	1.26
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$125.29	$254.46	$271.53
Upside / Downside	718.33%	1,562.06%	1,673.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	542.09	577.33	614.85	654.82	697.38	742.71	764.99
Payout Ratio	37.72%	48.18%	58.63%	69.09%	79.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	204.49	278.14	360.51	452.41	554.73	668.44	707.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	258.91	261.36	263.82
Year 2 PV (M)	312.37	318.32	324.33
Year 3 PV (M)	364.90	375.37	386.05
Year 4 PV (M)	416.49	432.50	448.98
Year 5 PV (M)	467.16	489.72	513.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,461.29	15,159.78	15,885.00
Equity Value (M)	16,281.12	17,037.07	17,821.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	397.04	397.04	397.04
Fair Value	$41.01	$42.91	$44.89
Upside / Downside	167.84%	180.27%	193.18%

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Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. (003013.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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