DDM Analysis: 003012.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.37 - $10.75	$7.46
Multi-Stage	$7.65 - $8.38	$8.00
Blended Fair Value	$7.73
Current Price	$7.18
Upside	7.71%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	83.02%	3.88%	0.31	0.12	0.22	0.31	0.03	0.01	0.17	0.00	1.36	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	160.63%	-46.95%	-27.79%	1,081.63%	74.06%	-91.00%	15,859.50%	-99.92%	7,613.74%	-91.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.90%	1.55%	2.54%	3.04%	0.12%	0.09%	0.00%	0.00%	8.34%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	368.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	288.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	80.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	73.77	46.11	27.66
Cash Retained (M)	80.76	80.76	80.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-73.77	-46.11	-27.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.99	34.66	53.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,152.80	1,152.80	1,152.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.26	0.28	0.30
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	1.88%	2.88%	3.88%
Fair Value	$5.37	$7.46	$10.75
Upside / Downside	-25.26%	3.94%	49.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	368.84	379.46	390.38	401.62	413.18	425.07	437.83
Payout Ratio	78.10%	80.48%	82.86%	85.24%	87.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	288.08	305.40	323.48	342.35	362.03	382.57	404.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	1.88%	2.88%	3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)	283.34	286.12	288.90
Year 2 PV (M)	278.44	283.93	289.48
Year 3 PV (M)	273.39	281.52	289.81
Year 4 PV (M)	268.23	278.92	289.92
Year 5 PV (M)	262.97	276.13	289.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,447.68	7,820.44	8,207.98
Equity Value (M)	8,814.04	9,227.06	9,655.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,152.80	1,152.80	1,152.80
Fair Value	$7.65	$8.00	$8.38
Upside / Downside	6.49%	11.48%	16.66%

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Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. (003012.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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