DDM Analysis: 002978.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$88.45 - $351.78	$239.65
Multi-Stage	$42.78 - $46.80	$44.75
Blended Fair Value	$142.20
Current Price	$32.36
Upside	339.43%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	127.76%	32.55%	0.91	0.88	0.97	1.55	0.22	0.01	0.64	0.17	0.07	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	2.38%	-9.09%	-37.14%	600.00%	1,396.68%	-97.68%	280.61%	132.90%	-60.87%	238.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.77%	2.69%	2.61%	4.18%	0.50%	0.04%	1.61%	0.42%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	801.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	256.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	545.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	160.38	100.24	60.14
Cash Retained (M)	545.39	545.39	545.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-160.38	-100.24	-60.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)	385.01	445.16	485.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	453.35	453.35	453.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.85	0.98	1.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.57	0.57	0.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.85	0.98	1.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.42	1.55	1.64
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%	7.19%	7.19%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$88.45	$239.65	$351.78
Upside / Downside	173.34%	640.58%	987.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	801.90	854.02	909.53	968.65	1,031.62	1,098.67	1,131.63
Payout Ratio	31.99%	43.59%	55.19%	66.79%	78.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	256.50	372.27	501.99	647.01	808.76	988.80	1,046.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%	7.19%	7.19%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	344.04	347.30	350.56
Year 2 PV (M)	428.76	436.92	445.17
Year 3 PV (M)	510.72	525.38	540.32
Year 4 PV (M)	590.00	612.69	636.02
Year 5 PV (M)	666.65	698.85	732.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16,851.85	17,665.80	18,510.90
Equity Value (M)	19,392.02	20,286.95	21,215.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	453.35	453.35	453.35
Fair Value	$42.78	$44.75	$46.80
Upside / Downside	32.19%	38.29%	44.61%

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Sichuan Anning Iron and Titanium Co.,Ltd. (002978.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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