DDM Analysis: 002971.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$57.48 - $67.73	$63.47
Multi-Stage	$121.67 - $133.66	$127.55
Blended Fair Value	$95.51
Current Price	$35.43
Upside	169.57%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.05%	0.00%	0.23	0.12	0.17	0.23	0.08	0.08	0.16	0.08	0.06	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	98.57%	-32.53%	-26.13%	191.80%	-2.29%	-49.43%	110.86%	24.08%	-9.46%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.19%	0.55%	0.96%	1.43%	0.58%	0.51%	1.36%	0.65%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	72.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.42	9.01	5.41
Cash Retained (M)	2.60	2.60	2.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.42	-9.01	-5.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-11.82	-6.41	-2.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	209.51	209.51	209.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.28	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	-19.19%	-19.19%	-19.19%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Fair Value	$57.48	$63.47	$67.73
Upside / Downside	62.22%	79.13%	91.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	72.08	75.98	80.10	84.43	89.01	93.83	96.64
Payout Ratio	96.40%	95.12%	93.84%	92.56%	91.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.48	72.27	75.16	78.15	81.25	84.45	89.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-19.19%	-19.19%	-19.19%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	88.58	89.43	90.28
Year 2 PV (M)	112.91	115.09	117.28
Year 3 PV (M)	143.90	148.08	152.33
Year 4 PV (M)	183.36	190.49	197.82
Year 5 PV (M)	233.59	244.99	256.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	24,728.29	25,935.32	27,189.02
Equity Value (M)	25,490.64	26,723.39	28,003.56
Shares Outstanding (M)	209.51	209.51	209.51
Fair Value	$121.67	$127.55	$133.66
Upside / Downside	243.40%	260.01%	277.26%

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Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd. (002971.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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