DDM Analysis: 002931.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.26 - $4.72	$3.19
Multi-Stage	$2.18 - $2.38	$2.28
Blended Fair Value	$2.74
Current Price	$15.36
Upside	-82.19%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.14%	10.24%	0.12	0.01	0.10	0.11	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.19	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	755.02%	-85.94%	-6.64%	60.00%	-25.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-96.38%	209.11%	33.23%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.72%	0.09%	0.86%	0.94%	0.62%	0.84%	0.00%	0.08%	2.34%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	24.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.79

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.99	3.12	1.87
Cash Retained (M)	0.79	0.79	0.79
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.99	-3.12	-1.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-4.19	-2.33	-1.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	199.90	199.90	199.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	8.73%	8.73%	8.73%
Growth Rate	4.14%	5.14%	6.14%
Fair Value	$2.26	$3.19	$4.72
Upside / Downside	-85.27%	-79.20%	-69.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	24.93	26.21	27.55	28.97	30.46	32.02	32.98
Payout Ratio	96.83%	95.46%	94.10%	92.73%	91.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.14	25.02	25.93	26.86	27.83	28.82	30.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.73%	8.73%	8.73%
Growth Rate	4.14%	5.14%	6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	22.79	23.01	23.23
Year 2 PV (M)	21.52	21.93	22.35
Year 3 PV (M)	20.31	20.90	21.50
Year 4 PV (M)	19.16	19.91	20.68
Year 5 PV (M)	18.08	18.97	19.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	334.05	350.40	367.38
Equity Value (M)	435.91	455.11	475.02
Shares Outstanding (M)	199.90	199.90	199.90
Fair Value	$2.18	$2.28	$2.38
Upside / Downside	-85.80%	-85.18%	-84.53%

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Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co., Ltd. (002931.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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