DDM Analysis: 002857.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.83 - $1.30	$1.05
Multi-Stage	$0.99 - $1.09	$1.04
Blended Fair Value	$1.04
Current Price	$23.35
Upside	-95.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.86%	-2.93%	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.04	0.04	0.12	0.07	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	150.00%	6.67%	-70.00%	77.78%	11,131.66%	-98.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.25%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.82%	0.37%	0.24%	0.99%	0.43%	0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.15	1.35	0.81
Cash Retained (M)	8.49	8.49	8.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.15	-1.35	-0.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.33	7.14	7.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	128.83	128.83	128.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.07	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	1.66%	2.66%	3.66%
Fair Value	$0.83	$1.05	$1.30
Upside / Downside	-96.44%	-95.52%	-94.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10.77	11.06	11.36	11.66	11.97	12.29	12.66
Payout Ratio	21.21%	34.97%	48.73%	62.48%	76.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.29	3.87	5.53	7.28	9.13	11.06	11.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	1.66%	2.66%	3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.49	3.52	3.56
Year 2 PV (M)	4.50	4.59	4.68
Year 3 PV (M)	5.34	5.50	5.66
Year 4 PV (M)	6.03	6.27	6.52
Year 5 PV (M)	6.59	6.92	7.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	101.96	107.08	112.39
Equity Value (M)	127.90	133.87	140.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	128.83	128.83	128.83
Fair Value	$0.99	$1.04	$1.09
Upside / Downside	-95.75%	-95.55%	-95.34%

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SMS Electric Co.,Ltd.Zhengzhou (002857.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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