DDM Analysis: 002824.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.54 - $85.67	$29.97
Multi-Stage	$8.81 - $9.63	$9.21
Blended Fair Value	$19.59
Current Price	$18.83
Upside	4.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.25%	12.02%	0.26	0.27	0.20	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.90%	35.53%	172.28%	31.37%	-10.75%	2.90%	-19.07%	-9.74%	-2.59%	1.11%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.59%	1.64%	0.84%	0.29%	0.42%	0.54%	0.52%	0.62%	0.41%	0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	125.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	105.19

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.03	15.64	9.39
Cash Retained (M)	105.19	105.19	105.19
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.03	-15.64	-9.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	80.16	89.55	95.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	290.51	290.51	290.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.31	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.31	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	7.84%	7.84%	7.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.54	$29.97	$85.67
Upside / Downside	-17.47%	59.15%	354.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	125.15	133.29	141.95	151.18	161.00	171.47	176.61
Payout Ratio	15.95%	30.76%	45.57%	60.38%	75.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.96	41.00	64.69	91.28	121.06	154.32	163.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.84%	7.84%	7.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.66	38.02	38.38
Year 2 PV (M)	54.58	55.62	56.67
Year 3 PV (M)	70.76	72.79	74.86
Year 4 PV (M)	86.20	89.51	92.92
Year 5 PV (M)	100.94	105.81	110.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,207.92	2,314.57	2,425.29
Equity Value (M)	2,558.06	2,676.32	2,799.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	290.51	290.51	290.51
Fair Value	$8.81	$9.21	$9.63
Upside / Downside	-53.24%	-51.08%	-48.83%

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Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co., Ltd. (002824.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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