DDM Analysis: 002549.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.87 - $1.36	$1.09
Multi-Stage	$1.18 - $1.29	$1.24
Blended Fair Value	$1.16
Current Price	$24.34
Upside	-95.22%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-23.52%	6.86%	0.03	0.03	0.08	0.08	0.13	0.12	0.06	0.09	0.01	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.14%	-58.50%	0.69%	-42.65%	11.56%	89.36%	-31.05%	722.42%	-46.74%	29.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.37%	0.41%	0.54%	0.48%	1.48%	1.95%	0.84%	1.46%	0.13%	0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	60.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	49.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.02	7.51	4.51
Cash Retained (M)	49.23	49.23	49.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.02	-7.51	-4.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	37.21	41.72	44.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	695.18	695.18	695.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	0.71%	1.71%	2.71%
Fair Value	$0.87	$1.09	$1.36
Upside / Downside	-96.44%	-95.51%	-94.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	60.11	61.14	62.18	63.24	64.32	65.42	67.38
Payout Ratio	18.10%	32.48%	46.86%	61.24%	75.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.88	19.86	29.14	38.73	48.64	58.88	62.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	0.71%	1.71%	2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)	18.08	18.26	18.44
Year 2 PV (M)	24.16	24.64	25.13
Year 3 PV (M)	29.24	30.11	31.01
Year 4 PV (M)	33.43	34.78	36.17
Year 5 PV (M)	36.84	38.71	40.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	678.34	712.69	748.43
Equity Value (M)	820.09	859.20	899.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	695.18	695.18	695.18
Fair Value	$1.18	$1.24	$1.29
Upside / Downside	-95.15%	-94.92%	-94.68%

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Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd. (002549.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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