DDM Analysis: 002500.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.25 - $3.42	$2.80
Multi-Stage	$4.87 - $5.35	$5.10
Blended Fair Value	$3.95
Current Price	$6.47
Upside	-38.96%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.84%	6.96%	0.14	0.26	0.30	0.28	0.21	0.19	0.15	0.10	5.15	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-46.70%	-11.38%	6.65%	33.45%	10.12%	30.56%	46.82%	-98.08%	5,606.93%	26.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.37%	5.16%	5.11%	4.92%	2.97%	2.84%	1.55%	1.34%	49.06%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	910.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	659.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	251.11

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	182.16	113.85	68.31
Cash Retained (M)	251.11	251.11	251.11
(-) Cash Required (M)	-182.16	-113.85	-68.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	68.94	137.25	182.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,583.61	3,583.61	3,583.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.25	$2.80	$3.42
Upside / Downside	-65.29%	-56.78%	-47.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	910.82	901.71	892.69	883.77	874.93	866.18	892.16
Payout Ratio	72.43%	75.94%	79.46%	82.97%	86.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	659.71	684.80	709.32	733.28	756.69	779.56	825.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	634.29	640.76	647.23
Year 2 PV (M)	608.53	621.02	633.63
Year 3 PV (M)	582.69	600.71	619.09
Year 4 PV (M)	556.94	580.02	603.81
Year 5 PV (M)	531.45	559.12	587.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,524.92	15,281.27	16,068.80
Equity Value (M)	17,438.81	18,282.89	19,160.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,583.61	3,583.61	3,583.61
Fair Value	$4.87	$5.10	$5.35
Upside / Downside	-24.79%	-21.15%	-17.36%

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Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. (002500.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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