DDM Analysis: 002437.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.34 - $0.44	$0.40
Multi-Stage	$0.61 - $0.68	$0.65
Blended Fair Value	$0.52
Current Price	$3.09
Upside	-83.15%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-44.15%	-16.88%	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.08	0.08	0.12	0.11	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-78.64%	-36.29%	-3.06%	-47.25%	-21.91%	-7.72%	-29.27%	3.50%	64.83%	160.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.17%	0.90%	1.27%	1.05%	2.26%	2.94%	1.56%	2.06%	1.44%	0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	293.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)	292.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	58.61	36.63	21.98
Cash Retained (M)	292.37	292.37	292.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-58.61	-36.63	-21.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	233.76	255.74	270.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,259.75	2,259.75	2,259.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-15.55%	-14.55%	-13.55%
Fair Value	$0.34	$0.40	$0.44
Upside / Downside	-88.90%	-87.21%	-85.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	293.04	250.41	213.98	182.85	156.25	133.52	137.53
Payout Ratio	0.23%	18.18%	36.14%	54.09%	72.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.67	45.53	77.33	98.91	112.57	120.17	127.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-15.55%	-14.55%	-13.55%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.91	41.39	41.88
Year 2 PV (M)	62.42	63.91	65.42
Year 3 PV (M)	71.74	74.32	76.96
Year 4 PV (M)	73.37	76.90	80.57
Year 5 PV (M)	70.37	74.63	79.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,064.90	1,129.46	1,197.11
Equity Value (M)	1,383.71	1,460.62	1,541.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,259.75	2,259.75	2,259.75
Fair Value	$0.61	$0.65	$0.68
Upside / Downside	-80.18%	-79.08%	-77.93%

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Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd (002437.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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