DDM Analysis: 002096.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.06 - $28.54	$18.74
Multi-Stage	$9.24 - $10.10	$9.66
Blended Fair Value	$14.20
Current Price	$13.84
Upside	2.59%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	105.10%	21.92%	0.22	0.03	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	624.14%	-85.11%	3,266.67%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-50.00%	0.00%	-66.67%	20.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.91%	0.26%	1.60%	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.08%	0.16%	0.09%	0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	833.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	816.78

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	166.62	104.14	62.48
Cash Retained (M)	816.78	816.78	816.78
(-) Cash Required (M)	-166.62	-104.14	-62.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	650.16	712.65	754.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,240.65	1,240.65	1,240.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.57	0.61
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.57	0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.54	0.59	0.62
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$13.06	$18.74	$28.54
Upside / Downside	-5.64%	35.37%	106.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	833.10	887.25	944.92	1,006.34	1,071.75	1,141.42	1,175.66
Payout Ratio	1.96%	19.57%	37.18%	54.78%	72.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16.32	173.61	351.28	551.31	775.86	1,027.28	1,087.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	156.57	158.05	159.54
Year 2 PV (M)	285.71	291.16	296.65
Year 3 PV (M)	404.41	416.02	427.85
Year 4 PV (M)	513.28	533.02	553.32
Year 5 PV (M)	612.92	642.52	673.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,486.10	9,944.29	10,420.00
Equity Value (M)	11,459.00	11,985.06	12,530.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,240.65	1,240.65	1,240.65
Fair Value	$9.24	$9.66	$10.10
Upside / Downside	-33.26%	-30.20%	-27.02%

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Hunan Nanling Industrial Explosive Materials Co., Ltd. (002096.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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