DDM Analysis: 002040.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.67 - $11.01	$7.79
Multi-Stage	$5.16 - $5.65	$5.40
Blended Fair Value	$6.59
Current Price	$10.10
Upside	-34.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.66%	13.06%	0.14	0.11	0.10	0.11	0.14	0.16	0.30	0.37	0.07	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	31.50%	0.69%	-7.48%	-16.75%	-14.32%	-47.22%	-18.53%	442.76%	37.60%	21.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.12%	1.67%	1.53%	1.72%	2.14%	2.57%	3.24%	4.23%	0.37%	0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	169.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	151.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.90	21.19	12.71
Cash Retained (M)	151.62	151.62	151.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.90	-21.19	-12.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	117.71	130.43	138.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	489.40	489.40	489.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.27	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.27	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.28	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	3.95%	4.95%	5.95%
Fair Value	$5.67	$7.79	$11.01
Upside / Downside	-43.91%	-22.89%	8.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	169.52	177.91	186.73	195.98	205.68	215.87	222.35
Payout Ratio	10.56%	26.45%	42.34%	58.22%	74.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.90	47.05	79.05	114.10	152.44	194.29	205.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	3.95%	4.95%	5.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	42.74	43.15	43.56
Year 2 PV (M)	65.23	66.49	67.76
Year 3 PV (M)	85.53	88.02	90.56
Year 4 PV (M)	103.79	107.84	112.01
Year 5 PV (M)	120.16	126.05	132.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,106.81	2,210.11	2,317.42
Equity Value (M)	2,524.25	2,641.66	2,763.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	489.40	489.40	489.40
Fair Value	$5.16	$5.40	$5.65
Upside / Downside	-48.93%	-46.56%	-44.09%

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Nanjing Port Co., Ltd. (002040.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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