DDM Analysis: 000837.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.32 - $0.46	$0.39
Multi-Stage	$0.52 - $0.57	$0.54
Blended Fair Value	$0.46
Current Price	$14.02
Upside	-96.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-21.91%	-11.99%	0.03	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.10	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-56.75%	53.80%	-33.51%	-38.35%	6.52%	15.91%	0.97%	29.17%	8.66%	-41.54%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.20%	0.67%	0.39%	0.79%	1.50%	2.63%	1.53%	1.43%	0.64%	0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	45.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	15.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	29.58

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.03	5.65	3.39
Cash Retained (M)	29.58	29.58	29.58
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.03	-5.65	-3.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	20.54	23.93	26.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,007.12	1,007.12	1,007.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	9.08%	9.08%	9.08%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.32	$0.39	$0.46
Upside / Downside	-97.74%	-97.25%	-96.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	45.17	44.72	44.27	43.83	43.39	42.96	44.24
Payout Ratio	34.52%	45.62%	56.71%	67.81%	78.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	15.59	20.40	25.11	29.72	34.24	38.66	40.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.08%	9.08%	9.08%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	18.51	18.70	18.89
Year 2 PV (M)	20.68	21.10	21.53
Year 3 PV (M)	22.21	22.90	23.60
Year 4 PV (M)	23.22	24.18	25.17
Year 5 PV (M)	23.79	25.03	26.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	413.95	435.51	457.95
Equity Value (M)	522.36	547.41	573.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,007.12	1,007.12	1,007.12
Fair Value	$0.52	$0.54	$0.57
Upside / Downside	-96.30%	-96.12%	-95.94%

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Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd. (000837.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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