DDM Analysis: 000625.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.84 - $27.25	$18.23
Multi-Stage	$9.15 - $10.01	$9.57
Blended Fair Value	$13.90
Current Price	$12.23
Upside	13.65%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	93.70%	17.99%	0.35	0.24	0.18	0.17	0.00	0.01	0.22	0.32	0.31	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	44.93%	31.98%	5.81%	3,648.36%	-64.05%	-94.17%	-32.21%	2.87%	142.46%	94.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.66%	1.35%	1.52%	1.97%	0.06%	0.22%	4.61%	5.22%	3.61%	1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,796.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,755.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,359.35	849.59	509.75
Cash Retained (M)	6,755.98	6,755.98	6,755.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,359.35	-849.59	-509.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,396.63	5,906.39	6,246.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,943.36	9,943.36	9,943.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.54	0.59	0.63
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.54	0.59	0.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.60	0.63
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.84	$18.23	$27.25
Upside / Downside	4.96%	49.05%	122.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,796.73	7,238.52	7,709.02	8,210.11	8,743.77	9,312.11	9,591.48
Payout Ratio	0.60%	18.48%	36.36%	54.24%	72.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.75	1,337.65	2,802.98	4,453.15	6,306.00	8,380.90	8,872.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,204.69	1,216.11	1,227.53
Year 2 PV (M)	2,273.44	2,316.75	2,360.46
Year 3 PV (M)	3,252.85	3,346.22	3,441.37
Year 4 PV (M)	4,148.42	4,307.95	4,472.05
Year 5 PV (M)	4,965.37	5,205.19	5,454.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	75,150.96	78,780.78	82,549.52
Equity Value (M)	90,995.72	95,173.01	99,505.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,943.36	9,943.36	9,943.36
Fair Value	$9.15	$9.57	$10.01
Upside / Downside	-25.17%	-21.74%	-18.17%

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Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited (000625.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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