DDM Analysis: 000617.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.63 - $11.23	$7.82
Multi-Stage	$9.05 - $9.93	$9.48
Blended Fair Value	$8.65
Current Price	$10.50
Upside	-17.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.13%	50.56%	0.22	0.26	0.28	0.34	0.36	0.41	0.37	0.14	0.00	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.30%	-8.18%	-16.30%	-5.94%	-12.39%	10.41%	166.88%	4,914.46%	-98.96%	7,353.64%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.38%	4.54%	4.07%	6.65%	4.49%	5.92%	3.65%	1.46%	0.02%	3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,306.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,396.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,910.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	861.39	538.37	323.02
Cash Retained (M)	1,910.20	1,910.20	1,910.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-861.39	-538.37	-323.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,048.81	1,371.83	1,587.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	12,665.25	12,665.25	12,665.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	6.23%	6.23%	6.23%
Growth Rate	1.33%	2.33%	3.33%
Fair Value	$5.63	$7.82	$11.23
Upside / Downside	-46.36%	-25.55%	6.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,306.94	4,407.37	4,510.13	4,615.29	4,722.90	4,833.03	4,978.02
Payout Ratio	55.65%	62.52%	69.39%	76.26%	83.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,396.75	2,755.43	3,129.54	3,519.59	3,926.14	4,349.72	4,604.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.23%	6.23%	6.23%
Growth Rate	1.33%	2.33%	3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,568.57	2,593.92	2,619.27
Year 2 PV (M)	2,719.47	2,773.41	2,827.87
Year 3 PV (M)	2,851.00	2,936.24	3,023.17
Year 4 PV (M)	2,964.64	3,083.41	3,205.72
Year 5 PV (M)	3,061.75	3,215.84	3,376.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	100,451.58	105,506.96	110,763.85
Equity Value (M)	114,617.01	120,109.77	125,815.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	12,665.25	12,665.25	12,665.25
Fair Value	$9.05	$9.48	$9.93
Upside / Downside	-13.81%	-9.68%	-5.39%

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CNPC Capital Company Limited (000617.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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