DDM Analysis: SPMA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$325.27 - $505.18	$408.48
Multi-Stage	$748.77 - $824.78	$786.03
Blended Fair Value	$597.25
Current Price	$196.92
Upside	203.30%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	11.97	0.00	0.00	10.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.72%	0.00%	0.00%	2.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	108,892.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37,759.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	71,132.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21,778.56	13,611.60	8,166.96
Cash Retained (M)	71,132.83	71,132.83	71,132.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21,778.56	-13,611.60	-8,166.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	49,354.27	57,521.23	62,965.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,154.09	3,154.09	3,154.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	15.65	18.24	19.96
LTM Dividend per Share	11.97	11.97	11.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	15.65	18.24	19.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend	27.62	30.21	31.93
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$325.27	$408.48	$505.18
Upside / Downside	65.18%	107.43%	156.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	108,892.79	107,803.86	106,725.82	105,658.57	104,601.98	103,555.96	106,662.64
Payout Ratio	34.68%	45.74%	56.81%	67.87%	78.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37,759.96	49,310.58	60,626.42	71,711.01	82,567.84	93,200.36	98,662.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	45,910.27	46,378.74	46,847.21
Year 2 PV (M)	52,553.46	53,631.46	54,720.39
Year 3 PV (M)	57,875.53	59,665.37	61,491.73
Year 4 PV (M)	62,042.57	64,613.95	67,264.43
Year 5 PV (M)	65,202.79	68,598.06	72,133.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,078,099.23	2,186,310.68	2,298,983.76
Equity Value (M)	2,361,683.87	2,479,198.25	2,601,440.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,154.09	3,154.09	3,154.09
Fair Value	$748.77	$786.03	$824.78
Upside / Downside	280.24%	299.16%	318.84%

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PT Suparma Tbk (SPMA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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