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Definitive Analysis

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Saha Pathanapibul Public Company Limited (SPC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$396.89 - $1,561.15$1,093.22
Multi-Stage$233.25 - $255.56$244.20
Blended Fair Value$668.71
Current Price$59.00
Upside1,033.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.67%8.44%2.221.611.502.211.021.601.511.811.111.00
YoY Growth--37.93%6.81%-31.84%116.61%-36.50%5.96%-16.46%63.57%10.50%1.79%
Dividend Yield--3.76%2.59%2.40%3.18%1.65%3.53%2.80%3.52%2.30%2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,602.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)799.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,803.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)520.57325.36195.22
Cash Retained (M)1,803.111,803.111,803.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-520.57-325.36-195.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,282.531,477.751,607.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.03329.03329.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.494.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.432.432.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.494.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.336.927.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Fair Value$396.89$1,093.22$1,561.15
Upside / Downside572.69%1,752.92%2,546.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,602.872,750.522,906.553,071.433,245.663,429.783,532.68
Payout Ratio30.73%42.58%54.44%66.29%78.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)799.761,171.201,582.202,036.072,536.333,086.803,267.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Year 1 PV (M)1,090.931,101.351,111.77
Year 2 PV (M)1,372.761,399.121,425.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,645.481,693.091,741.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,909.291,983.312,059.45
Year 5 PV (M)2,164.422,269.812,379.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,563.9971,902.3375,369.46
Equity Value (M)76,746.8780,349.0084,087.27
Shares Outstanding (M)329.03329.03329.03
Fair Value$233.25$244.20$255.56
Upside / Downside295.35%313.90%333.16%

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