DDM Analysis: SBSP3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,083.75 - $2,098.28	$1,966.40
Multi-Stage	$328.29 - $359.29	$343.50
Blended Fair Value	$1,154.95
Current Price	$132.17
Upside	773.84%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.65%	7.11%	1.36	1.21	0.88	0.37	1.30	1.08	0.96	1.12	0.20	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	12.77%	36.47%	137.41%	-71.44%	20.28%	13.25%	-14.69%	449.45%	-31.03%	-56.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.33%	1.44%	1.74%	0.78%	3.16%	2.77%	2.27%	3.26%	0.63%	1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,211.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,292.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,918.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,442.31	901.44	540.87
Cash Retained (M)	3,918.91	3,918.91	3,918.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,442.31	-901.44	-540.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,476.60	3,017.47	3,378.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	683.51	683.51	683.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.62	4.41	4.94
LTM Dividend per Share	4.82	4.82	4.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.62	4.41	4.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.44	9.23	9.76
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,083.75	$1,966.40	$2,098.28
Upside / Downside	719.96%	1,387.78%	1,487.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,211.54	7,680.29	8,179.51	8,711.17	9,277.40	9,880.43	10,176.84
Payout Ratio	45.66%	54.53%	63.39%	72.26%	81.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,292.63	4,187.77	5,185.37	6,294.97	7,526.90	8,892.39	9,413.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,901.79	3,938.77	3,975.76
Year 2 PV (M)	4,501.34	4,587.08	4,673.63
Year 3 PV (M)	5,091.39	5,237.55	5,386.47
Year 4 PV (M)	5,672.05	5,890.19	6,114.55
Year 5 PV (M)	6,243.44	6,545.00	6,858.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	198,977.35	208,588.03	218,566.53
Equity Value (M)	224,387.36	234,786.61	245,575.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	683.51	683.51	683.51
Fair Value	$328.29	$343.50	$359.29
Upside / Downside	148.38%	159.89%	171.84%

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Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBSP3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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