Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $158.15 - $419.52 | $241.82 |
| Multi-Stage | $105.91 - $115.85 | $110.79 |
| Blended Fair Value | $176.31 | |
| Current Price | $414.42 | |
| Upside | -57.46% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 18.46% | 0.00% | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.49% | 16.30% | 20.68% | 17.76% | 24.34% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.48% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,018.05 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 58.81 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 959.23 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 203.61 | 127.26 | 76.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 959.23 | 959.23 | 959.23 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -203.61 | -127.26 | -76.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 755.62 | 831.98 | 882.88 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 151.00 | 151.00 | 151.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.00 | 5.51 | 5.85 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.00 | 5.51 | 5.85 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.39 | 5.90 | 6.24 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $158.15 | $241.82 | $419.52 |
| Upside / Downside | -61.84% | -41.65% | 1.23% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,018.05 | 1,084.22 | 1,154.70 | 1,229.75 | 1,309.68 | 1,394.81 | 1,436.66 |
| Payout Ratio | 5.78% | 22.62% | 39.47% | 56.31% | 73.16% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 58.81 | 245.27 | 455.72 | 692.48 | 958.11 | 1,255.33 | 1,328.91 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 222.70 | 224.82 | 226.93 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 375.72 | 382.88 | 390.10 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 518.40 | 533.28 | 548.45 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 651.26 | 676.31 | 702.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 774.80 | 812.22 | 851.08 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 13,450.49 | 14,100.15 | 14,774.68 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,993.38 | 16,729.67 | 17,493.31 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 151.00 | 151.00 | 151.00 |
| Fair Value | $105.91 | $110.79 | $115.85 |
| Upside / Downside | -74.44% | -73.27% | -72.05% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.45% | $2.47 | 28.36% |
| SF | Stifel Financial Corp. | 1.45% | $1.86 | 30.82% |
| 0HFN.L | Analog Devices, Inc. | 1.44% | $3.90 | 84.88% |
| HAYN | Haynes International, Inc. | 1.44% | $0.88 | 30.16% |
| 0I58.L | Cummins Inc. | 1.43% | $7.42 | 38.53% |
| 0HRJ.L | CSX Corporation | 1.42% | $0.51 | 33.32% |
| OLED | Universal Display Corporation | 1.42% | $1.73 | 37.24% |
| BBW | Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.86 | 19.50% |
| LBC | Luther Burbank Corporation | 1.41% | $0.13 | 17.07% |
| SNDR | Schneider National, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.38 | 58.72% |
| 0R13.L | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 1.40% | $1.16 | 36.55% |
| COHN | Cohen & Company Inc. | 1.40% | $0.35 | 48.05% |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 1.40% | $2.48 | 39.81% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | 1.40% | $1.54 | 44.05% |
| CXT | Crane NXT, Co. | 1.39% | $0.66 | 24.82% |
| ESBA | Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 1.39% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| MMS | Maximus, Inc. | 1.39% | $1.21 | 21.54% |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 1.39% | $1.70 | 34.98% |
| ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | 1.38% | $0.24 | 34.61% |
| HYAC | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III | 1.38% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corporation | 1.38% | $0.36 | 18.11% |
| MCY | Mercury General Corporation | 1.38% | $1.27 | 16.00% |
| ACU | Acme United Corporation | 1.37% | $0.55 | 28.31% |
| DE | Deere & Company | 1.36% | $6.34 | 34.22% |
| HYAC-UN | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 | 1.36% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 1.36% | $2.56 | 52.52% |
| 0HIN.L | Assurant, Inc. | 1.35% | $3.22 | 19.47% |
| AL | Air Lease Corporation | 1.35% | $0.86 | 9.51% |
| BGCP | BGC Partners, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.06 | 11.88% |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | 1.34% | $3.55 | 33.23% |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.59 | 50.16% |
| 0K9L.L | Nucor Corporation | 1.33% | $2.22 | 31.04% |
| BY | Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 1.33% | $0.39 | 13.97% |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.33% | $1.09 | 35.19% |
| OPOF | Old Point Financial Corporation | 1.33% | $0.56 | 32.91% |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 1.33% | $2.50 | 27.85% |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 1.32% | $0.71 | 21.15% |
| VLEOX | Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class | 1.32% | $0.79 | 56.29% |
| 0IW7.L | Global Payments Inc. | 1.31% | $1.01 | 13.82% |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 1.31% | $1.92 | 27.59% |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66 | 1.31% | $0.27 | 6.72% |
| NDSN | Nordson Corporation | 1.31% | $3.15 | 36.67% |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 1.31% | $5.23 | 68.01% |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | 1.31% | $1.52 | 18.87% |
| 0L3I.L | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 1.30% | $1.29 | 28.42% |
| 0R2X.L | Corning Incorporated | 1.30% | $1.15 | 72.69% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 1.30% | $1.13 | 24.20% |
| GGG | Graco Inc. | 1.30% | $1.07 | 36.31% |
| HES | Hess Corporation | 1.30% | $1.94 | 26.90% |