DDM Analysis: PNGO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5,485.86 - $10,120.99	$7,393.67
Multi-Stage	$9,292.29 - $10,217.38	$9,745.93
Blended Fair Value	$8,569.80
Current Price	$2,420.00
Upside	254.12%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	5.63%	0.00%	92.19	130.00	120.00	102.00	51.20	70.12	44.80	64.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-29.08%	8.33%	17.65%	99.22%	-26.98%	56.51%	-30.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.69%	8.97%	9.09%	6.87%	4.95%	22.47%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	294,674.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	62,700.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	231,974.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	58,934.84	36,834.28	22,100.57
Cash Retained (M)	231,974.22	231,974.22	231,974.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-58,934.84	-36,834.28	-22,100.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	173,039.38	195,139.94	209,873.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	781.25	781.25	781.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	221.49	249.78	268.64
LTM Dividend per Share	80.26	80.26	80.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	221.49	249.78	268.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend	301.75	330.04	348.89
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Fair Value	$5,485.86	$7,393.67	$10,120.99
Upside / Downside	126.69%	205.52%	318.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	294,674.22	299,879.52	305,176.76	310,567.58	316,053.62	321,636.58	331,285.67
Payout Ratio	21.28%	35.02%	48.77%	62.51%	76.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	62,700.00	105,024.37	148,824.46	194,139.19	241,008.42	289,472.92	306,439.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	97,820.78	98,791.55	99,762.32
Year 2 PV (M)	129,108.97	131,684.23	134,284.91
Year 3 PV (M)	156,868.74	161,585.51	166,395.89
Year 4 PV (M)	181,382.96	188,690.98	196,217.64
Year 5 PV (M)	202,914.59	213,184.98	223,867.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,491,504.73	6,820,068.05	7,161,802.72
Equity Value (M)	7,259,600.77	7,614,005.29	7,982,330.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	781.25	781.25	781.25
Fair Value	$9,292.29	$9,745.93	$10,217.38
Upside / Downside	283.98%	302.72%	322.21%

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PT PINAGO UTAMA Tbk (PNGO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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